No BS Real Estate – 2009 April

Commentary

These are interesting times. In 5 years some will be glad to have taken advantage of the opportunity to buy California real estate. Yet others will realize they were blinded with fear. Fear, according to Napoleon Hill, is False Evidence Appearing Real. This is an ingenious way of looking at a complex emotion in a simple way. We either succumb to the fears of others or we create our own out of an inability to produce a solution. We also have an inability to recognize the false evidence that is being presented to us.

I’m here to present facts, not false evidence. I don’t want you to fear anything. It’s healthy to be cautious but don’t confuse caution with fear. You can still take action within the boundaries of careful and diligent forethought. It’s when you are frozen with INaction that fear has won. Let me educate you on selling and buying real estate. When you feel comfortable with taking action, I’ll be there to help. But even if you THINK fearful thoughts, don’t call me. It’s a plague worse than the Mexican flu and I don’t want any of it.

So on to the market facts…

Inventory is creeping upward. It’s about time! The demand is waiting on the sidelines because most don’t want to bid on Short Sales or there are better financial incentives for REO purchases. I have a couple of short listings. It’s evident that some Realtors shut down after getting the first offer. While they may be reducing their effort, they are not representing their client in a fiduciary manner. If you are in dire straits with your mortgage, don’t let fear win—let me help. I won’t pay your mortgage but I will help you sell your house and represent YOU.

Contrary to how the banks are slow to make decisions on short sales, the federal government is quickly moving forward with some harmful ideas (IMHO). How many roles will the government be playing in our lives? And what about the promised transparency? There is no change happening. The Feds, like the banks in this current market, can demand anything they want and it’s one-sided. The banks are swallowing large losses but, as I tell our kids, you sleep in the bed; you make it. The banks won’t make their bed and the Feds want to tell us how soft the mattress should be. No BS.

Sorry. Back to the facts…

Summary of my monthly indicators: Inventory is up (not as high as it could be) but the homes are not on the market for long; notices of default are up (more REOs coming) although the April NOD filings are down from March; interest rates are at 40-year lows; median price momentum is mostly up (for 51 zip codes—see Swing Indicator); and new home permits are down. When the inventory picks up, the choices will again be plentiful.

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Major-Sales-2009-03

Major-MedianSA-2009-03

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Major-NODs-2009-03

Major-Rate-2009-03

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The beauty of any set of indicators or metrics is that the clarity of the story increases as the individual measurements are combined with the others. My inventory metrics are not quite mature. MLS had a collection problem that ended last fall (brought to their attention by you-know-who) which made all inventory numbers suspect/corrupt. So it will take another year to get a meaningful momentum indicator from Inventory volumes. But stay tuned.

The Swing indicator (#7; my newest indicator) is still showing a swing from “down ” to “up ”. Simple Ups and Downs depict the swings and gaps between Up ticks and Down ticks. I love it when simple truths are depicted in simple pictures. Even more beautiful is when my clients get their new keys. Let me help with yours.

 If fear has won already, I won’t worry about you calling. If you call, then you have won.

What is YOUR NEXT ACTION?

  • Investors – Even cash buyers need to move quickly in this market.
  • Buyers — this is a market for you! Call me immediately
  • I know some creative and resourceful lenders. Don’t let fear win.
  • Distressed homeowners — don’t pay anyone to help you. You can get free help. Call me.
  • Video walk-thrus: http://www.YouTube.com/JayEmerson0

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